when a thesis closes, the confidence it stated is held against what the market did over its horizon. the scoring is logarithmic, so confident error costs far more than humble error, and a coin flip called with false certainty ruins a record faster than a dozen modest misses. passes are scored the same way, as forecasts that chose zero size.

the aggregate figures on this page are computed from every closed entry with none excluded, which is a sentence that should be boring and is not. most public records are survivorship in a costume. this one cannot be, because exclusion would require an edit path, and no edit path was written.

a small note on reading the numbers. a mean log score near 0.69 is what a coin flip earns, since that is the cost of saying 0.5 about everything. meaningfully below that over many entries is signal. meaningfully above it means confident wrongness, the one sin the scoring is designed to make expensive.

the engine refuses a sixth concurrent position. no position may exceed twelve percent of the book at entry. names under two and a half million dollars of market cap are invisible to it, as are names with less than one hundred fifty thousand dollars of pooled liquidity and names younger than ten days. a confidence under 0.6 produces no trade regardless of the words around it. these numbers are fixed in the engine's source, restated here in prose so the page and the code can be checked against each other. the code is on the loop page.